Just my two cents, but it's looking like 9.2 might be a situation a little bit similar to osmenite & zin'anthid in 8.3 based on what I've seen on the PTR. I've been waiting to post this in case Blizzard decided to make last minute changes Zereth Mortis, but with a release candidate that seems unlikely now.
There's probably something I've overlooked here, let me know what it is in the comments. Very open to thoughts & discussion because this is partly relying on my memory of what happened back in BFA.
Background: Patch 8.2 - Nazjatar. Blizzard added osmenite (ore) & zin'anthid (herb). The two can be gathered only in Nazjatar. Osmenite was used to craft the best gear, zin'anthid for best raid consumables.
Then, patch 8.3 came: Blizzard revamped Uldum and Vale of Eternal Blossoms. The best Ny'alotha raid consumables in 8.3 still required zin'anthid, and new 8.3 crafted gear still required osmenite. A lot of it. So demand for zin'anthid and osmenite stayed high.
This wouldn't have been notable, except Blizzard did not add zin'anthid and osmentite nodes to Uldum and Vale. You could still only gather them in Nazjatar. But players were mostly "done" with Nazjatar by the time 8.3 released, or at least spending a lot less time there. A such, the typical player was gathering a lot less zin'anthid and osmenite in 8.3. That resulted in a lot less "casual" gathering (coming across a node while doing world quests, etc.), and more of the supply became controlled by farmers & goblins.
And as a result of the high demand and tightly controlled supply, zin'anthid and osmenite more than doubled in price when 8.3 released, and stayed that way for months.
You can check out the historical prices on Undermine Journal. You'll see the prices for these increased 2-3x with the launch of 8.3 in January 2020. It took about three months for zin'anthid to come back down to pre-8.3 prices, and about six months for osmenite.
Scroll down to
regional daily summary and select "all:"
Now for 9.2.The new 9.2 herb (
First Flower) is used in one new alchemy consumable (healing potion). It's used on other optional gear reagents, but there are no other new consumables, only the healing pot. The best flasks and non-healing potions for Sepulcher will be the same as they were in 9.1. And they will still require a lot of widowbloom, marrowroot, vigil's torch, and rising glory.
The new 9.2 ore (
Progenium) is used in the new crafter's marks, vestige, and optional gear reagents. The best crafted blacksmithing and jewelcrafting gear in 9.2 (including legendaries) still has the same base item materials, requiring oxxein ore, phaedrum ore, solenium ore, and sinvyr ore.
But on the PTR, the only ores/herbs that spawn in Zereth Mortis are elethium, laestrite, death blossom, nightshade, and the new 9.2 herb + ore.
Zereth Mortis has zero nodes for widowbloom, marrowroot, vigil's torch, rising glory, and zero nodes for oxxein ore, phaedrum ore, solenium ore, or sinvyr ore. (What I'll call the covenant herbs & ores.) These nodes still only exist in the "original" four covenant zones (Bastion, Maldraxxus, Ardenweald, and Revendreth).
Which seems similar to the situation with zin'anthid and osmenite in 8.3. The mats will still be in high demand, but can only be gathered from zones that players will be spending a lot less time in. Resulting in less casual gathering of these materials, and fewer players controlling the supply.
9.2 and 8.3 have some differences though: we can now collect mats from mission tables and soulbind traits. That didn't exist in BFA.
How frequently the average player visits their mission table will have some impact on supply. Zereth Mortis has an anima reservoir unlike Korthia did (until 9.1.5). One less reason for the average player to visit their sanctum = fewer sanctum visits = fewer mission table visits. (Obviously goblins will still be visiting it a lot.) Soulbind traits will still allow some "gathering" in Zereth Mortis.
So we have other ways to "gather" these mats, but it may not change supply a ton overall, or at least who's going to be controlling most of it. Knowing that, prices of these covenant herbs & ores may not quite double in price like zin'anthid and osmenite, but prices will probably stay higher for longer than other mats.
Isn't this more like Akunda's bite etc in 8.3 than zin'anthid?Akunda's bite, storm silver ore, etc. were still used in 8.3. Like zin'anthid & osmenite, they could not be gathered in Uldum or Vale. However, 8.3 recipes required a lot more zin'anthid and osmenite ore than the others. 9.2 recipes like Shadowghast Ingots and Spectral Flask of Power still require a lot of the covenant herbs & ores. Again, prices might not double, but for covenant mats & herbs I expect them to stay high for a while.
Korthia didn't have nodes for the covenant herbs & ores either, why will 9.2 be different?A combination of:
There seems to be much more to do in Zereth Mortis than in Korthia = average player spends more in ZM = less time spent in the four covenant zones = less casual gathering of covenant herbs and ores.- I think it's safe to say the average player is more "done" with the four covenant zones than they were when 9.1 launched seven months ago. Fewer things left to do in covenant zones = less time spent in the covenant zones = less casual gathering of covenant herbs and ores.
- The aforementioned anima reservoir in ZM, which gives less reason to visit the sanctum & covenant zones.
Less casual gathering = supply for the covenant herbs & ores will be more tightly controlled by goblins and farmers = higher prices.
TLDR:
There are four herbs and four ores that can ONLY be gathered in the original four covenant zones. They cannot be gathered in Zereth Mortis:- Marrowroot, Widowbloom, Vigil's Torch, Rising Glory
- Oxxein Ore, Phaedrum Ore, Sinvyr Ore, Solenium Ore
But these herbs & ores will still be in high demand in 9.2 for flasks, shadowghast ingots, essences, legendaries, etc.
Since most players will be spending a lot less time in the four covenant zones, farmers/goblins will likely control more of the supply for these mats, causing prices to increase significantly and probably stay high longer than other mats.
This situation looks a bit like zin'anthid and osmenite, which were used in 8.3 recipes but could not be gathered in 8.3. zones. Prices more than doubled and stayed high for 3-6 months after the patch released.
Prices for these mats might not double, but right now might be the cheapest they may be for a while.
